Poll Finds Senate Could Swing Either Way

By Karen DeWitt

Albany, New York – A new poll finds the battle for control of the State Senate between Democrats and Republicans could come down to the wire on Election Day.

The Siena College poll picked six key state Senate races in New York, and found that the Senate could end up almost evenly divided between Democrats and Republicans in January. Currently, the Republicans hold onto the house by a one-seat margin, at 31 to 30, with the retirement of former Senate Majority Leader Joe Bruno, and Siena's Steve Greenberg says, right now, it's up for grabs.

"Anything can happen," said Greenberg.

The poll found that the two newest Senate Democrats, Long Island's Craig Johnson and the North Country's Darrell Aubertine, who both won their seats in special elections, hold leads of more than 20 points against their Republican challengers. Two Republican Senators considered vulnerable, Joe Robach of Rochester and Caesar Trunzo of Long Island, are also ahead of their opponents, but by smaller margins, at 10% for Robach and 6% for Trunzo.

Two of the races are too close to call. Republican incumbent Serph Maltese of Queens is in a dead heat with Democratic challenger Joseph Addabbo, both have 42% of the vote. And, in an open seat in Buffalo, made vacant by the retiring Republican Mary Lou Rath, Democrat Joe Mesi is nearly even with GOP candidate Michael Razenhofer, at 40% to 38%.

Siena's Greenberg says while the numbers are just a snapshot of one point in time in what's been a volatile election year, one conclusion can be drawn. Voters pick their state representatives on the perceived merits of the individual, not on their party affiliation.

"Voters are sophisticated enough in New York, and they've shown it over the years, that they will vote for one candidate on Row A and another candidate on Row B," Greenberg said.

In Rochester, in a district that heavily favors Barack Obama for President, more voters said they wanted Democrats to gain control of the Senate, yet they favored Republican incumbent Senator Robach.

On Long Island, in Senator Trunzo's district, more voters wanted the Senate to switch to Democratic Party control. Yet, they still backed GOP incumbent Trunzo over his challenger. And the opposite was true in the North Country-Oswego district. While the majority wanted the Senate to remain in Republican hands, they also favored Democrat Darrel Aubertine by a 51% to 31% margin.

Based on the poll numbers, it's possible there could be a split Senate, with 31 Republicans and 31 Democrats. There is no Lieutenant Governor to act as referee, and cast any tie breaking votes. David Paterson became Governor to replace the resigning Eliot Spitzer, and there is no provision in the state's constitution to appoint a new lieutenant governor before the 2010 elections.

It's also possible that one party will gain or retain the majority by just one seat, and some Senators may switch party allegiance, if not their actual party, to form a stronger majority with the winning side.